Podcast Season 6 Episode #231
Date: July 1, 2025
This episode is the English version converted using GEN AI in both text and speech translated from the original Japanese version from jfuneral.com.
The subject of this broadcast is marketing within the funeral industry, with a particular focus on the intersection of human elements and Artificial Intelligence (AI). The Japanese character for love, 愛, is also pronounced “ai,” creating a noteworthy pun.
The term “mass death society” can be defined as the period in which the entirety of the baby boomer generation enters their later years of life.
In this context, the number of annual deaths in 2024 surpassed 1.6 million. According to official statistics from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the precise figure was 1,605,298. This number has risen consistently since the post-COVID-19 era, reaching the 1.6 million threshold eight years ahead of initial projections. It is worth noting that during the pandemic, a temporary decrease in mortality was observed, largely attributable to reduced public movement, which in turn lowered fatalities from traffic accidents and other external causes.
Since the resumption of broad social activities in 2022, however, the annual death toll has trended upward. This trajectory is expected to continue, with projections indicating that fatalities will again exceed 1.6 million this year. Nevertheless, observations from within the funeral sector suggest a lower perceived mortality rate in the Tokyo metropolitan area. This perception is substantiated by the relative ease of securing crematorium reservations and shorter waiting periods compared to the norm.
It is crucial to recognize that the trend of increasing mortality is not geographically uniform across the nation. A forthcoming data table, summarized by a generative AI, will be provided right below to illustrate these regional disparities.
Significant reasons underpin the higher mortality rates observed in rural regions. Primarily, these areas are experiencing a sharp acceleration in population aging, which is occurring concurrently with an outflow of the younger demographic. The combination of a high mortality rate among the elderly and overall population decline has created a negative feedback loop.
Conversely, urban centers such as Tokyo, Kanagawa, the Saitama Shin Fuku Toshin, and Chiba City attract population influx from other regions. This migration helps maintain a relatively younger demographic, resulting in a lower mortality rate. Therefore, a simple comparison of death tolls or mortality rates is insufficient for comprehending the underlying distortions in population structure; relying solely on such figures can lead to erroneous conclusions.
This analysis is presented by Yuusuke Wada of Y.E.Y inc., a specialist in funeral and mortuary business and marketing, and a researcher of “Reform of Death” and “Designer of Journey for end-of-life Matters”.
The primary topics of discussion are the definition of a “mass death society” and the strategic responses available to funeral service providers.
A key metric for this analysis is the “Crude Death Rate,” which is calculated as follows:
Crude Death Rate = (Total annual deaths / Total population as of October 1 of the given year) × 1,000
While this rate is often expressed per 100,000 individuals, the per-mille (per 1,000) basis is utilized here for enhanced numerical precision.
As previously stated, the prefectures exhibiting the highest death tolls and mortality rates include Akita, Kochi, Aomori, Yamagata, and Iwate. While mortality rates are generally elevated across most rural areas, they are markedly lower in Tokyo, Okinawa, Shiga, Kanagawa, and Aichi.
However, according to predictions from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare cited in Episode 228, the number of deaths in Tokyo and its three neighboring prefectures is expected to continue rising until 2040. This is attributed to the aging of the current middle-aged and older cohorts into their early and late elderly years.
Population estimates from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications indicate that as of October 1, 2024, Akita Prefecture had the nation’s highest proportion of residents aged 65 and over (39.5%) and 75 and over (22.0%). In a region with such a demographic composition, the aggregate number of deaths will inevitably be high due to the elevated baseline mortality risk associated with an older populace, even if the standard of medical care meets or exceeds the national average. This demographic reality results in a significantly high crude death rate.
Furthermore, Akita’s population is declining at a rate of -1.87%, the highest in the nation for 12 consecutive years. This has been identified as the cumulative result of a high death rate, a low birth rate, and the sustained outflow of the younger generation.
In contrast, Tokyo, along with Saitama, was one of the few prefectures to experience population growth in 2024. This increase was driven by a “social increase” (net in-migration) that was substantial enough to offset the “natural decrease” (more deaths than births).
Consequently, a direct comparison of Akita’s high crude death rate with Tokyo’s lower rate could lead to the premature conclusion that Akita’s public health is inferior or that Tokyo’s is superior.
The critical factor to consider is the correlation between population dynamics and regional mortality rates. Japan is undergoing a severe bipolarization, characterized by a widening gap between major metropolitan centers, which experience continuous population inflow, and rural regions, which face unstoppable population decline and aging.
Since the collapse of the bubble economy, there has been a persistent trend of young people from rural areas, particularly the Tohoku and Shikoku regions, migrating to large cities for higher education and better employment opportunities. In 2024, 45 prefectures, including Kanagawa, experienced population decline. This highlights the bipolarizing mechanism of “natural decrease” in some areas and “social increase” in others.
Transportation infrastructure presents a related challenge. Rural life is heavily dependent on automobiles, whereas metropolitan existence can often be managed entirely on foot. For younger generations in the capital region, possessing a driver’s license is not a necessity, which eliminates the financial burdens of vehicle ownership and parking. This is not feasible in rural areas. Conversely, elderly rural residents are often compelled to drive, which structurally contributes to a higher incidence of traffic accidents.
During a recent discussion with officials from Okuaizu and the Kochi prefectural government at a tourism DX event, it was suggested that autonomous driving systems could offer a potential solution to this issue.
Additionally, the problem of vacant housing is becoming more prominent, not only in rural areas but also within the metropolitan sphere. Current estimates place the number of vacant homes at 9 million, a figure that is likely several times higher when unsold new properties are included. The issue is not confined to older dwellings; many dangerous, dilapidated structures also exist.
Superficial solutions such as demolition, reconstruction, or renovation for rental purposes are insufficient to repatriate those who have migrated to urban centers. A clear path to resolving this complex issue has yet to emerge. A narrow focus on population dynamics—specifically, the long-standing trends of over-concentration in Tokyo and rural decline, or prefecture-level population and mortality data—risks obscuring the fundamental nature of the situation.
Key Takeaways
- First: The total number of deaths in Japan is on a consistent upward trajectory, a trend that is forecast to persist until at least 2070.
- Second: At the prefectural level, mortality dynamics are not uniform. Evidence indicates that these regional variations are determined more by local “age structure” and “population migration” patterns than by differences in healthcare standards.
- Third: It follows that simplistic inter-regional comparisons of crude death rates carry a significant risk of misinterpreting local conditions. A high crude death rate is not necessarily indicative of substandard medical care but is more often a consequence of an advanced-age population structure.
The paramount question, therefore, is how funeral service companies should strategically respond to these conditions.
An Action Plan for Funeral Homes
- Mobility and Life Support for the Elderly in Rural Areas:
- Acknowledging the transportation-dependent lifestyle of the rural elderly, funeral homes can extend their services beyond funeral arrangements to include daily life support, such as assistance with shopping and medical appointments.
- By contributing to local transportation solutions, such as operating shuttle services, they can help mitigate the challenges posed by inadequate public infrastructure. It is posited that autonomous driving systems will be a crucial component of this effort.
- Addressing the Vacant Housing Problem:
- In conjunction with post-funeral estate settlement services, funeral homes can establish advisory services for the clearance and disposition of vacant family properties.
- Through strategic partnerships with real estate firms and demolition contractors, they can facilitate the effective utilization or disposal of these properties, thereby contributing to the resolution of the broader vacant housing crisis.
- Bridging the Information Gap and Sustaining Community Ties:
- To counteract the digital divide affecting the elderly, providers must supplement online information with detailed, face-to-face consultations and support.
- The funeral service itself can serve as an occasion to maintain and reinforce community connections, contributing to the revitalization of weakening local networks.
- The regular hosting of end-of-life planning seminars and consultations can provide both essential information and a venue for social interaction among residents.
- Adapting Services to Rising Mortality and Regional Specifics:
- In response to the nationwide increase in deaths, providers must develop efficient service models while remaining attuned to local variables, such as crematorium capacity, to build a flexible and responsive operational framework.
- A sophisticated understanding of demographic distortions and migration patterns is essential. This involves tailoring services to the diverse needs of metropolitan areas, which are shaped by “social increase,” while providing comprehensive support to address the advanced aging in rural communities.
- Social Education and Reforming Attitudes Toward Death:
- Funeral homes can play a role in fostering a society-wide acknowledgment of the “mass death society” reality. By disseminating information on thanatology and end-of-life planning, they can help catalyze a shift in public consciousness.
- As experts in their field, they can contribute to reducing the societal taboo surrounding death, thereby helping to create a culture in which all individuals can approach the end of life with assurance and dignity.
Through such contributions, funeral companies can transcend their traditional role and function as a vital form of social infrastructure, actively participating in the resolution of critical community challenges.
It is hoped that this analysis will be widely disseminated. Feedback may be directed to the official LINE account @jFuneral or @YEYSHONAN.
Thank you for your time and attention.
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